AI Macro Brief

Today · New York

Risk-onConviction · ModerateUpdated Updating ET
Base case

Rates are doing the work.

Lower yields and a softer dollar are lifting long-duration tech. The move is constructive, but leadership remains narrow.

Since prior closeThe 10Y yield fell 4 bp while NDX outperformed SPX by 0.4 pt.
SPX5,874↗ +0.8%Risk bid
NDX20,112↗ +1.2%Leading
US10Y3.98%↘ -4 bpTech relief
VIX17.2↗ +0.1Contained

Why this read

Cross-asset confirmation
Rates3.98%-4 bpDuration pressure eases
Dollar101.6-0.3%Less drag on risk assets
Breadth42%NarrowMega-cap still carries the tape
Tomorrow · 08:30 ET

Next test · CPI revision

Base case holds if the inflation signal stays contained.

A hot revision and a 10Y move above 4.05% would weaken the risk-on read.

Your book

Macro impact
METALONG2xTailwindLower yields support the multiple; earnings remain the key risk.-$174Review thesis
TSLASHORT1.5xHeadwindA broad risk-on squeeze works against the short.-$96Stress-test risk
Stress-test my positions

Demo data · Not live market data